NBL finals race: top two and play-in
What is already decided and what is still open, calculated only from results and the fixtures left. No predictions.
Key facts (27/09/2026)
As of 27/09/2026 (13 of 165 matches played): No place is mathematically decided yet.
Every team: points, games left and maximum
| # | Team | P | W | Left | Max W | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sydney Kings | 2 | 2 | 31 | 33 | Still open |
| 2 | Brisbane Bullets | 2 | 2 | 31 | 33 | Still open |
| 3 | Adelaide 36ers | 3 | 2 | 30 | 32 | Still open |
| 4 | Perth Wildcats | 3 | 2 | 30 | 32 | Still open |
| 5 | Melbourne United | 2 | 1 | 31 | 32 | Still open |
| 6 | Tasmania JackJumpers | 2 | 1 | 31 | 32 | Still open |
| 7 | New Zealand Breakers | 3 | 1 | 30 | 31 | Still open |
| 8 | South East Melbourne Phoenix | 3 | 1 | 30 | 31 | Still open |
| 9 | Cairns Taipans | 3 | 1 | 30 | 31 | Still open |
| 10 | Illawarra Hawks | 3 | 0 | 30 | 30 | Still open |
If the season ended today
This only applies the competition rules to the current table — nothing here is a prediction.
- Sydney Kings and Brisbane Bullets would go straight to the semi-finals.
- Play-in: Adelaide 36ers v Perth Wildcats — the winner is the 3rd seed, the loser gets a second chance.
- Play-in: Melbourne United v Tasmania JackJumpers — the loser is out; the winner plays the loser of 3 v 4 for the 4th seed.
Positions will change; every figure is recalculated after each result.
Format
10 teams play 33 games. 1st and 2nd go straight to the best-of-three semi-finals. 3rd–6th play the play-in: 3 v 4 (winner is the 3rd seed), 5 v 6 (loser out), then the 3v4 loser hosts the 5v6 winner for the 4th seed. The Championship Series is best of five.
How is this calculated?
Maximum wins = current wins + games left (33 games per team).
A spot is only marked as certain when no other team can reach the same number of wins — equal wins count against the team, because the tie-breaker (points percentage) depends on games not yet played. No probabilities, no predictions.
What each position means
- 1–2 Semi-finals (direct)
- 3–6 Play-in (3–6)
Ladder order: win percentage, then points percentage (points for ÷ points against), as on the official NBL ladder.
Positions checked against the official table (NBL official data API (prod.rosetta.nbl.com.au) standings) after this update: identical, including teams level on points.